The business landscape of the last decade is littered with CEOs who went from being acclaimed as geniuses to being dismissed as fools because of strategic mistakes.
Were these executives fools?
Did they go from being brilliant to being stupid overnight?
No and no. They were as smart and skilled at the end as they were at the beginning. It’s just that they were never skilled enough to consistently predict the future, probably because no one is.
CEOs should come with the same disclaimer as mutual funds: Past success is no guarantee of future success.
— Extracted from The Wisdom of Crowds by James Suroweicki